Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Oil Pain = Tech Gain

It's going to be very difficult to make money in energy stocks over the next couple years outside of playing a short-term bounce. Not only will the stocks follow the commodity price lower, but now you're going to see a swarm of lowered earnings expectations and in some cases, dividend cuts. I don't think I've ever made money on a stock with declining earnings and dividends. To make matters worse, there is still a few trillion dollars of hot money in the commodity sector. Now that the sector is no longer working, that money will start flowing to other areas. My guess is that it's starting to flow into growth sectors like technology and biotech. That's what the charts are saying anyway. This is a tend that could easily last one or two years.

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