Matt Snowling was dead wrong on FMD securitization
Matt Snowling estimated FMD’s first-quarter securitization at $1.25 billion. Well, the company announced this morning that it’s going to be $2.8 billion, so he was only off by a mere $1.55 billion. It is highly likely in my opinion that Snowling has been overly pessimistic on FMD because his hedge fund client(s) are short the stock. Matt Snowling is the one who should be investigated by NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, not FMD. Not only was his volume assumption not even in the park, but his prepayment and default assumptions have been pulled from thin air. Yet, since there is so little analyst coverage of the stock, it’s his opinion that is often reported in Barron’s, Forbes, the New York Times, thestreet.com and other media sources.
posted by Never-Limp at 1:08 PM
2 Comments:
lemme know if i'm wrong about my understanding...i'm out at the moment and not up to speed...the announcement was that they have available to sell the 2.8b securitization ....right?
so this is good/great news on the volume potential but the GREAT news is when they finish the deal and we can all revise up future profits
this stock seems too good to be true...and tom browns track record this year esp on his seemingly well founded posts is so bad (NEW, LEND, CCRT) i'm having a hard time getting aggressive in this name
we still have to fade the bear argument that they won't be able to close this deal in the current environment
The deal will get done, that's not an issue anymore and estimates will have to go up. The Ambac insurance helped a lot in this crazy environment IMO. The two issues still out there are securitization margins (which will decline, but how much??? Will the DTC channel and Astrive make up the difference???) and potentially losing BofA and JPM as clients at some point because of SLM or taking the business in-house.
As far as Brown, I think he played the Subprime mess by shorting NEW while going long LEND because they had much better underwriting. CCRT was a good idea but the environment became hostile and people started paying their bills on time which really hurt fees.
Post a Comment
<< Home