Have refining margins peaked?!
From Mike Rothman:
"*The DOE released its revised monthly figure for March gasoline demand. Like the revised figures for January and February, the revisions came in significantly lower than the initial estimates.
*The weaker than previously estimated gasoline demand numbers make sense to us given the separate data we analyze for vehicle miles traveled which were distinctly soft for the same period. It seems that the oil market still believes US gasoline demand is robust.
*Gasoline imports surged almost 25% week-over-week. The elevated levels are likely to persist over the near term given the still wide "import arb" with Europe.
*US refinery production continues to ramp higher. We think output levels will climb at least 300,000 b/d from current levels by early July. Between refinery operations ramping up and imports being elevated, we expect continued downward pressure on the "gas crack" and refining margins.
*We've had a number of questions about the petroleum balance accounting employed by the DOE for ethanol. The short story is ethanol stocks aren't counted as part of gasoline inventories as yet, but gasoline output does include ethanol that's being blended."
"*The DOE released its revised monthly figure for March gasoline demand. Like the revised figures for January and February, the revisions came in significantly lower than the initial estimates.
*The weaker than previously estimated gasoline demand numbers make sense to us given the separate data we analyze for vehicle miles traveled which were distinctly soft for the same period. It seems that the oil market still believes US gasoline demand is robust.
*Gasoline imports surged almost 25% week-over-week. The elevated levels are likely to persist over the near term given the still wide "import arb" with Europe.
*US refinery production continues to ramp higher. We think output levels will climb at least 300,000 b/d from current levels by early July. Between refinery operations ramping up and imports being elevated, we expect continued downward pressure on the "gas crack" and refining margins.
*We've had a number of questions about the petroleum balance accounting employed by the DOE for ethanol. The short story is ethanol stocks aren't counted as part of gasoline inventories as yet, but gasoline output does include ethanol that's being blended."
posted by Never-Limp at 6:37 AM
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