Friday, December 15, 2006

Current Portfolio

As I mentioned in my previous post, I'll bery bullish at the moment. In fact, I'm 100% equities with the following allocation in my 401(k):

51% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index
27% Highly Rated International Fund w/Emerging Market Exposure
11% Highly Rated Large-Cap Growth Fund
10% Highly Rated Mid-Cap Growth Fund

Outside of the 401(k), I have a pretty large position in CompuCredit (CCRT), a Dan Brown/Bankstocks.com pick, and smaller positions in some health care names (LNCR, CVH and LLY) that I think are undervalued.

CompuCredit (CCRT) is a sub-prime lending company which scares a lot of people, especially in a slowing economy, thus the cheap valuation. However, they basically have a license to steal and earn incredibly high returns. Their credit card for low FICO customers (very low limit with high fees) is a brilliant product and cash machine.

Lincare (LNCR) provides in-home respiratory services in the U.S. The stock is at an inflection point IMO because Medicare reimbursement cuts were not as bad as expected and the stock has broken a downtrend line. Also, the company is an excellent LBO candidate with its high normalized cash flow yield and strong balance sheet. I expect the stock to be weak today and maybe Monday as it's removed from the Nasdaq 100, but could easily trade into the mid 40's over the next 6 months and potentially much higher.



Coventry Health Care (CVH) is the smallest publically traded managed care company. They are an excellent operator in an attracitive industry but also a takeover candidate. My target price is in the mid 60's.

Eli Lilly (LLY) is a big pharma company with no near-term patent issues and an excellent drug pipeline. The shares represent good value in the mid to lower 50's and could tade $10 higher next year with some decent pipeline news.

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